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NPD Reports Consumers Embracing Traditional Items this Back-to-School Shopping Season
A just-released survey of consumer spending intent for this year's back-to-school season reports traditional items like clothing, shoes, backpacks and school supplies should experience healthy sales increases this year, compared to last year. Sixty-nine percent of consumers with children attending school (kindergarten to college) said they intend to spend $500 or less on back-to-school purchases this season, while 31 percent said they plan to spend more than $500. Twenty-one percent said they plan to spend between $501 and $1,000; just 10 percent said they intend to spend more than $1,000 this back-to-school season.
Parents with two or more kids in school this fall are likely to plan to spend more than $500 during back-to-school time. Forty-four percent of households with three or more children in school this fall plan to spend over $500 this season. Thirty-six percent of households with two children in school said they plan to spend more than $500. Only 24 percent of households with one child in school reported they plan to spend more than $500 when back-to-school shopping.
Where will back-to-school dollars go?
Consumers indicated they plan to spend more in several categories than they did during last year's back-to-school shopping season. These categories include clothing (36 percent intend to spend more than last year), school supplies (30 percent), shoes (28 percent) and skincare/cosmetics (21 percent). Categories for which consumers intend to spend the same as they did last year include backpacks/lunchboxes (63 percent will spend the same as last year), perfumes (60 percent), skincare/cosmetics (60 percent), educational software (55 percent), educational toys (55 percent) and cell phones (47 percent). Consumers said they will spend "a little less to much less" than last year on electronic items such as MP3 players (59 percent intend to spend less this year than last), PDAs (56 percent), portable CD players (50 percent) and digital cameras (47 percent).
"Back to basics is the theme this year. Consumers are seeking value and are indicating they will be cautious about spending. They're more inclined to spend on the essentials," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst, fashion. "Back-to-school is all about clothing, footwear, supplies and even some cosmetics and skincare products. The big-ticket electronics push we saw last year is not expected this back-to-school season. Many consumers and school-aged kids will make do with what they have, and if they have a laptop or PDA from last year, it will just have to be good enough for this year."
What's behind back-to-school purchase decisions?
School-provided back-to-school supply lists are what determine which products consumers will purchase for their children. Sixty-six percent of consumers surveyed said school requirements have the greatest influence on their purchase decisions. Sixty-three percent said "price" and 49 percent said "sales" are the greatest influences on their back-to-school purchases. Lesser influences include "child wants it" (34 percent) and "replacement item" (30 percent). The weakest back-to-school purchase influences include "trends" and "favorite licensed product," with 8 percent and 5 percent of consumers, respectively, saying those are factors in their purchase decisions.
Consumers and the tax cut
The NPD survey also asked consumers about their intent to spend or save the child tax credit dollars they will receive from the Federal Government. Sixty-one percent of consumers with children attending school said they would either save or spend the money. Thirty-nine percent said they are still undecided about what they will do with the money. Among those who have decided, 56 percent said they will spend the tax cut money; 44 percent said they will save it.
Sixty-two percent of families with three or more children said they plan to spend the child tax credit refunds. Fifty-eight percent of consumers with two children and 52 percent of consumers with one child plan to spend their tax cut dollars.
When will back-to-school begin?
When it comes to the timing of America's back-to-school shopping, 69 percent of consumers said they will begin their shopping in August. Twenty-nine percent said they intended to begin shopping in July, while only two percent said they will wait until September. The heavy back-to-school spenders who plan to spend more than $1,000 this season are more likely to begin their shopping earlier in the season. Forty-five percent of consumers who plan to spend over $1,000 will begin shopping in July; 27 percent of those who spend between $501 and $1,000 and 26 percent of those who intend to spend less than $500 said they would begin their back-to-school shopping in July.
Methodology
The NPD Back-to-School Consumer Purchase Intent Survey was fielded July 15 to 22, 2003. It was e-mailed to 5,000 members of the NPD online panel. The findings here are based on information from 2,795 completed surveys. The margin of error at the 90 percent confidence level is 1.6 percent.
For more on the NPD Back-to-School Consumer Purchase Intent Survey, including additional charts and graphs of survey results, visit www.npd.com.
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