The "fashion and function" trend is apparent in consumer electronics (CE), where NPD's Senior Industry Analyst Tom Edwards expects functionality and high-fashion to mean even more than "information, entertainment and communications," the factors that usually drive back-to-school CE purchases. Many of the hottest, newest CE products are designed to be worn as accessories. Tom cited as examples of the trend "E-Wear" MP3 players and cellular phones that look like "electronic jewelry" when clipped to clothing or worn around the neck. PDAs are focusing on function, now serving as cellular phones and address books as well as playing personal music lists, taking photographs and even connecting users to the Internet. The MPEG4 Movie Camera - which serves as a pocket-sized digital camcorder, digital still camera, digital audio player and digital voice recorder - is another high-function product expected to do well this fall.

In information technology (IT), Senior Industry Analyst Stephen Baker thinks back-to-school sales could be very big for retailers and manufacturers this year. Back-to-school represents a key volume opportunity for IT marketers, with August sales typically accounting for 8.5% of overall yearly consumer sales. That makes back-to-school only slightly smaller than November in importance. Stephen anticipates function will rule the day in fall IT sales. Notebooks geared to back-to-schoolers will be big winners, focusing "on two important themes: impressive desktop features in a small, portable form factor," he said. Large hard drives, DVD burners, 16- and 17-inch screens and integrated wireless connectivity will be the norm in notebooks for the fall. Another area where product features and function will play a role in strong sales is Microsoft's Media Center OS, which will be available for both notebook and desktop computers at back-to-school time. "This product very smartly addresses the dual-purpose functionality that back-to-school buyers crave. The Media Center OS allows users to turn their computers into televisions, TV recorders and music players very simply, offering space-constrained buyers the space-saving that comes with combining multiple functions," he said.

Fashion's middling performance may have turned a corner with the recent spate of very popular surfer styles for kids, which continues to be a strong force in kids' fashion design. Beyond surf and the rise of kid-hip store brands such as American Eagle and Delia's, NPD's Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst, says it's difficult to say which trends will be hottest. One thing marketers can count on, Marshal explained, is that back-to-school apparel purchases occur in waves - families purchase the basic, staple items before school starts, along with one or two key outfits for the first week of school. Once school starts, there's another wave of purchases based on what kids determine to be the "right" styles and brands by watching the classmates they identify to be "fashion leaders." "For marketers, it's all about determining which kids are the true fashion leaders and creating products and promotions that appeal to them. Once that's established, you can count on legions of kids following in these leaders' footsteps when it comes to purchase decisions," Marshal said.

In the toy industry, fashion - in the form of today's trendiest licenses - will be the greatest growth area during back-to-school season. NPD toy industry analyst Mike Redmond is watching closely to see which licenses and brands will be tied to school-oriented products. He expects the very hot Yu-Gi-Oh! and Beyblade licenses will stay strong among boys through back-to-school, Bratz dolls will remain popular with "tween" girls and keep an eye out for the new hip-hop Flavas dolls. The comeback of Strawberry Shortcake will hit it big, with the three- to eight-year-old crowd snapping up Strawberry Shortcake-themed backpacks, stationery, dolls and fashion role play products. Other hot characters for back-to-school necessities will be Dora the Explorer, Spongebob Squarepants, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and, of course, those tied to this summer's kids' movies: "Finding Nemo," "Spy Kids 3-D" and "The Hulk."

"The big question for food and beverage marketers at back-to-school time is, 'How will we feed the little ones as they go off to school?' The answer: the easiest way possible," said NPD Vice President Harry Balzer. NPD's National Eating Trends (NET) service has tracked the lunchtime eating habits of young children during back-to-school season for the past 23 years. "This year we'll continue to see the cake, cookies, candy and cheese sandwiches parents packed in kids' lunchboxes in the 1990s pushed out by healthier alternatives, including crackers, yogurt, carrots and packaged lunch kits," Harry said. But the most profound change Harry has witnessed during his years of monitoring kids' school lunches has been the gradual disappearance of the lunch carried from home. "Last year, grade school children carried nearly 40% fewer lunches from home than youngsters did in 1993. Parents have found the most convenient way to feed their kids at school is to let the schools feed them," he said.

Certain items are perennial winners at back-to-school time. In the toy industry, manufacturers focus on their core brands, eschewing new product introductions in favor of the old standbys. Arts and crafts supplies, which can account for up to 15% of sales in the hot July to September sales period are at the top of back-to-school shopping lists. In food, the year-after-year hits at back-to-school time are peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, salty snacks and juice drinks. The same is true when it comes to what kids are wearing to school. The usual back-to-school must-haves, including jeans, athletic footwear, khaki pants and other casual styles will top parent's shopping lists this year, as they have for decades. In technology, consumers will once again look to portable computing, as they have in past years: small form factor devices, multi-purpose products and consumables are standard fare for tech-oriented back-to-schoolers.

For more on back-to-school trends from our Industry Experts, visit the NPD World Web site for your industry:
Stephen Baker and Tom Edwards on technology
Harry Balzer on food
Marshal Cohen on fashion
Mike Redmond on the toy industry