It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like . . . Last Holiday Season!

The results of NPD’s Annual Holiday Survey are in – and they look familiar. NPD Chief Industry Expert Marshal Cohen examined the findings and concluded, “Overall, I think this holiday shopping season will look much the same as last year with growth, but modest growth.”

The biggest beneficiaries of this growth will be in the retail categories that contain the tried-and-true, traditional gift items, such as clothing, toys, books, music, and fragrances. Survey respondents said they intend to spend more on clothing and toys this year, compared to last year.

On the home front, the survey shows consumers plan to spend more on everything from home décor to home improvement and appliances. “Despite recent economic news about falling home values, I think consumers will look to ‘feather their nests’ this season. Everything from small decorative items to small and large domestic appliances will contribute to growth in this area,” said Cohen. The survey revealed nearly 19 percent of holiday shoppers expect to shop for home decorations this holiday season; almost 14 percent expect to shop for home improvement products – putting these categories just below the top 10 categories for expected purchases in Holiday 2006.

Consumers reported they expect to shop primarily at discount and mass merchant retail outlets this holiday season. Retail chains and online shopping round out the top three channels consumers plan to shop this year.

And how much will they spend? Slightly more than last year: Consumers expect to spend $728 this holiday season, compared to $681 last year. That’s similar to the gains seen last year: 2005 was up just a bit over 2004’s $655 average spend.

Manufacturers and retailers may agree they’d settle for a repeat of last year’s holiday season bright spots. In just one example of 2005 holiday season success, consumer electronics sales between November 20 and December 24, 2005 totaled $8.2 billion, a 10% increase over the year before.

The NPD Annual Holiday Survey was fielded September 12 to September 19, 2006. Findings presented here are based on information from 1,823 surveys completed by members of NPD’s online consumer panel.