NPD Foodworld’s Top Food Industry Surprises of 2004

The element of surprise cannot be under-rated in love or in war – or in the food industry. In the food business, as in other industries, examining the areas that run counter to popular perception and raise eyebrows can be the first step in identifying business opportunities and existing niches that have not been fully mined for potential riches.

With this in mind, NPD Insights spoke with NPD Foodworld’s Harry Balzer to get the low-down on surprises he’s uncovered in the latest Eating Patterns in America study.

Following are Harry Balzer’s “Top Food Surprises of 2004”:

1. Freshness: The Sandwich Catch-22
Freshness is what Americans always say they want, but when it’s time to go to the supermarket, consumers are veering away from fresh ingredients. Fresh ingredients have storage requirements, can cost more and often require time for preparation -- factors that today seem to mean more to consumers than ever. One result of this decline in preparing fresh foods is the gradual decline of America’s ubiquitous sandwich.

Although sandwiches are still the number-one food prepared at home, with 36 percent of home-prepared lunch meals including this menu item, U.S. consumers are making them less and less often. By comparison, in 1985, 40 percent of all lunches included a sandwich.

2. Wave Bye-Bye to Sides and Say “Hello” to the Crock-Pot
Another casualty of our on-the-go culture is the side dish – especially when it must be cooked at home. Mothers still make the lion’s share of family meals, but when trying to balance careers and parenting, the time remaining to cook dinner has shrunk appreciably. One way consumers have found to reduce the cooking workload is to simply cook fewer dishes, and that means giving up the side dishes that have for so long accompanied America’s entrees. In fact, according to NPD’s latest Eating Patterns in America study, in 2004, nearly half of all suppers in America will be served as a main-dish only without sides.

“The drive for convenience has left the side dish in the dust,” Balzer said. “New frozen meals, microwave ovens and portable grills have all done their part to make meal preparation faster and easier, but we’re still seeing the ongoing decline of ‘extra’ meal items.”

As sides subside, slow-cookers are engaged in a renaissance. Slow cookers, like the Crock-Pot, are in-vogue again in American kitchens. Surprised? There’s more: NPD data indicates that tonight one in nine in-home dinner meals will be prepared using this countertop appliance. Said Balzer, “One might think of slow-cookers as ‘old-school,’ but they’re really making a comeback in today’s family kitchen.”

3. The Rise of (Don’t-Call-It-“Fried”) Chicken
With all the talk we hear these days of healthy, low-carb/low-fat eating, you might think consumers are eschewing fried chicken for healthier fare. Think again: Fried chicken has been one of the fastest-growing fast food menu items for the past 10 years. Even so, the foodservice industry has changed with the times – or at least, they’ve changed the name of the game.

“Fried chicken today is not sold as fried chicken ” Balzer said. “At fast food outlets and other restaurants, consumers can order ‘crispy nuggets’ and ‘tender strips’ and ‘breaded chicken’ sandwiches, all fried but not called ‘fried.’”

4. Consumers Say They Want Salads, But They Order Burgers!
It may be surprising to hear that hamburgers, not salads, were the fastest growing foods ordered at restaurants in the summer of 2004. Despite what we hear about salads being a must-have menu item, the humble American hamburger is doing just fine. In fact, the top three products consumers ordered at restaurants for lunch were burgers, fries and soft drinks.

“People are being enticed in the doors of fast food places by thoughts of a fresh, quick salad,” Balzer said, “but it appears that when they get to the counter, the aroma of beef, pickles and onions can make people reconsider their options.”

5. Restaurant Dining Exploding? Not So Fast.
Given hectic schedules and competing demands on family time, it’s easy to believe Americans are eating out at restaurants more often now than ever before and that take-out meals are booming. But according to NPD’s Eating Patterns in America, that’s simply not the case. “For a time, ’takeout’ was on the tip of everyone’s tongue,” Balzer said. “But after 20 years on the increase – whether it’s takeout from restaurants or prepared foods from supermarkets – as of four years ago, we’ve seen a decline in families eating ‘outside’ food in the home.”

This situation has many food industry-watchers puzzled. One explanation is that the economy and job market have been soft and uncertain – is it possible that the long-term trend toward take-out meals is really over?

6. Coffee Crazy
With high-end coffee places cropping up everywhere from city corners to suburban strip malls, and consumers willing to pay upwards of $4 for a cup of Joe, coffee consumption must be growing exponentially to support all of these businesses – right? Not so: America’s rate of coffee consumption is actually lower than 5 years ago! NPD information shows the preparation and consumption of coffee at in-home dinners seems to be more work than than it’s worth. Coffee fell below hot tea for the first time in 2004.

After years of decline, we’re starting to see coffee consumption level off – and even then, NPD has found this rebound only in restaurants and coffee houses, like Starbucks.

7. Get Milk?
Milk has always been a popular drink in the home, with 18 percent of supper meals including this beverage in 2003. Now milk is also one of the fastest growing restaurant menu items – and it’s being driven mainly by fast food outlets.

According to Balzer, some fast-food chains have decided to capitalize on the fact that the number-one beverage enjoyed in U.S. homes is milk. “We know that moms and dads are accepting the addition of milk to fast-food meals for kids, but we still don’t know how kids really feel about it.”

8. Fat No More
With claims of a U.S. “obesity epidemic” widespread in the news for the past few years, it may surprise many that while Americans are indeed heavier than we were 10 years ago, we are not heavier than we were just three years ago. According to The NPD Group’s Diet Track, the percent of Americans who are overweight (with a Body Mass Index over 25) has not increased for two years.

“Our data shows that as a society, we’ve reached a weight plateau,” Balzer said. “It appears that while many are still trying to lose weight, as a group we’ve actually stopped gaining weight.”