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How Has the Recession Affected the Way Americans Eat?
By
Harry Balzer,
Chief Industry Analyst
Nearly every top executive of a consumer goods company is worried about how the economic downturn is affecting consumer behavior. Have we stopped shopping? Are we trading down to lower-cost stores and brands? Is anybody buying anything anymore? In times like these, real-time information is needed, but it’s just not available. Instead, we use “anecdotal data” to illustrate the larger picture of how Americans are changing their behavior.
Within the food market, there is a picture being painted with “anecdotal data” that provides a sense of how Americans are responding to the weakening economy. Here is a sampling of news stories and data that have been published during the past year to illustrate how Americans are feeding themselves:
- Bennigan’s restaurant goes out of business!
- Home freezer sales are up!
- Two out of every three restaurants losing sales!
- Flour sales up 34 percent
- Canning and freezing supplies fastest growing products at supermarkets!
What’s the impression left here? Is it not that we’re going out to eat less and cooking more in our homes? Have you bought a freezer for your home? How about canning last year’s harvest?
All of these stories support the feeling that we are eating out less and cooking more in our homes. The fact is, only NPD knows if this is true or not.
Sure, Bennigan’s closed its doors, but restaurants are always closing their doors. This doesn’t mean we’re eating out less.
An increase in home freezer sales means we’re freezing more…not cooking more. Double-digit growth in flour sales doesn't automatically translate to more Americans baking, and just because canning/freezer supplies are the fastest growing products at supermarkets, doesn’t mean we’re all freezing and canning.
NPD’s latest CREST and National Eating Trends data shows that during 2008, Americans prepared and ate 871 meals in their homes, compared to 868 during 2007, just a .3 percent increase in the number of meals prepared in-home over the year-ago level. In contrast, U.S. consumers bought one percent fewer meals at restaurants last year. Instead of buying 207 meals as the average American did in 2007, they purchased 205 meals at restaurants.
NPD confirms the belief that Americans are eating out less and cooking more in their homes, but the difference is a mere two to three meals per year.
All the hoopla about us eating more in our homes and going out less often amounts to about two to three meals a year. Can anybody know which two to three meals they have shifted from restaurants to home? Was it one less drive-thru visit for a breakfast sandwich? Did we run out of the house with a container of yogurt to eat for lunch? Or did we throw a pizza in the oven instead of having one delivered from a restaurant?
The truth is that behavior changes very slowly. It’s safe to say there will not be a recession in eating, just winners and losers. The winners will be those who take market share from the losers, as winners always do…in good and bad times.
For more information and insight on what’s happening in the food and beverage and foodservice industries, or to schedule a presentation by Harry Balzer at your location, contact Charles Camaroto at
866-444-1411 contactnpd@npd.com.